Post Saturday, November 30th, 2002
Washington Whispers says that GOPers are unhappy with pollster John Zogby:
Republican leaders have put out a contract on pollster John Zogby. Known for his accuracy, the GOP says he got too many midterm congressional races wrong and provided bad advice. “He’s out,” says a top Senate GOP aide. Incoming House Majority Leader Tom DeLay echoes that message to House members. Of course, it didn’t help that Zogby worked for DeLay’s foe. Zogby shrugs the critics off. “I’d continue to pay attention to me.”Known for his accurate predictions in presidential elections, Zogby’s numbers are much less reliable in other races. He was widely off in most close Senate races this year, overstating the Democratic vote in virtually every one. Worse, Zogby used to be a hard-left radical and spins his polling numbers relentlessly in his “analyses” to the benefit of Democrats.
Which raises an interesting issue. Could Zogby’s biased, inaccurate polls have cost the GOP a Senate seat? The surprising answer is Yes.
When South Dakotans went to the polls, Republicans enjoyed a huge (23,000) voter registration advantage (remember Bush won this state by 23 points.) However, they voted for Democratic senator Tim Johnson over challenger John Thune by about 500 votes. In a post-election survey, 54% of South Dakotans said that Senate control was a very important factor in their vote. In other words, most of those Republicans who crossed over to vote for Johnson did so to keep Daschle as majority leader. If Zogby’s polls had been accurate, the pundits may have stopped bleating about a “50-50″ election. South Dakotans might have realized that Senate control wouldn’t hang on their votes and might have voted their principles. I’m sure at least 500 Republicans would have decided to pull the lever for Thune.
There you have it. In a real-life parody of Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle, Zogby’s bad polls cost the GOP a Senate seat.