John Edwards
Up & Coming magazine says that, contrary to conventional wisdom, John Edwards’ presidential bid could be helping his chances of re-election to the Senate in 2004:
But there is another side to the story. It is this: John Edwards’ best chance to retain his senate seat is by running for President. Why? Money and publicity - the two most important assets for a senate candidate these days, and the hardest to come by.On the money side, even a senator as wealthy as John Edwards cannot afford to pay the enormous cost of a reelection campaign by himself. But fund-raising is a tough business. Most Democratic senate candidates can look for substantial help from a group of moderate and liberal political action committees (PACs). But not John Edwards. He has promised never to accept contributions from PACs.
Therefore, even if he secured generous financial support from individuals in North Carolina, it might not be enough to compete with a well-financed Republican candidate like Burr. To raise enough money for another senate campaign without PAC help, Edwards needed to follow the example of former Senator Jesse Helms by building a broad based group of national financial supporters.
With very impressive early fundraising success in his presidential campaign, Edwards is on his way to achieving this goal. Of course, not all of his presidential contributors will help again in a senate race. But many will, and some will help over and over again. In the meantime, their money is paying for an up-and-running Edwards organization that can be converted to the senate campaign when he gives the word.
Then, there is the publicity. An ordinary first-term senator has a hard time keeping his name before the public at home. Edwards’ presidential campaign, however, gets his name on the front page of every North Carolina newspaper almost every day, it seems. In a very short time he has built a bank of name recognition that every other politician would envy.
So, the next time you run into a loyal Democrat who insists that Edwards is “risking” a Senate seat by running for President, just remember these two words: money and publicity.
They are the most critical assets for a senate campaign, and Edwards is putting them in the bank every day.
I disagree, of course. Money and publicity are good tactical assets; but they only truly matter if you can hopelessly outspend your opponent. The polls show that Edwards is in trouble back home and it’s going to be very difficult to fix that with money and publicity. My full 2004 Senate analysis is here.