Review:2006: The Democratic Seats

2004-11-26 00:00:00

Vermont: Jim Jeffords is not really a Democrat, but we all know what being an independent in Vermont means. Jeffords is a far-left liberal, and Republicans would love to punish him for his 2001 betrayal of the party which re-elected him in 2000. However Governor Douglas does not seem ready to run against him, and Lieutenant Governor Dubie may have his eye on the Congressional seat.

Massachusetts: Ted Kennedy seems likely to run for another term, and the brilliant voters here will probably give him another term, unless the GOP can coax some wealthy businessman or former Governor into the race.

Connecticut: Joe Lieberman is one of my favorite Democrats. I will never forget his heroic defense of the invasion of Iraq, even though it cost him the presidential nomination of his party. However he is a loyal Democrat, and unless he is appointed to the cabinet, Lieberman will stay a Democrat. He may retire, in which case the GOP will probably nominate Congresswoman Johnson. It would be a very close race.

New York: Hillary Rodham Clinton has her eye on 2008, and she does not seem to understand that she must be re-elected in the Empire State. At first glance, that would not be a difficult task since the other Senator won a record landslide this year. The only way she would be denied a second term is if Governor George E. Pataki or former NYC Mayor Rudolph Giuliani decides to challenge her.

New Jersey: Jon Corzine wants to be Governor, and what happens here depends on what happens in 2005. Were Corzine to lose the primary to Codey or the general election a Republican, he would automatically become a top-tier target. On the Republican side, one of the Congressional delegation or former Governor Whitman would be a strong nominee.

Delaware: Senator Tom Carper was a popular Governor, and he is a popular Senator. This is a Democratic hold unless Congressman Castle seeks the nomination.

Maryland: Paul Sarbanes is a long-time and popular Democratic incumbent. Were he to run for re-election, Sarbanes would be a lock. However he may retire, and that would mean a top-tier GOP target were Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele to run. The Democrats would have a very crowded primary field, which would only benefit Steele.

Michigan: Debbie Stabenow is one of the dimmest lightbulbs in the Senate, and I expect the GOP will mount a strong challenge, likely from a member of the congressional delegation. Given the state’s increasingly Republican lean, this should be a toss-up until election day.

Wisconsin: Senator Kohl is a liberal, but he is also a very popular and wealthy liberal. Unless he retires, this is a Democratic hold. Were he to retire, the GOP might nominate former Governor Thompson or a member of the congressional delegation. I would rate the race slight Republican.

Minnesota: Senator Mark Dayton is another of the dimmest lightbulbs in the Senate, and his recent behavior underlined this attribute. The GOP will probably nominate a member of the congressional delegation. This race starts as a toss-up.

Florida: Bill Nelson must be lonely. He is the only Democrat elected statewide, and Republicans are anxious to complete their sweep of the Sunshine State. However they must first sort through what promises to be a crowded primary field. The strongest GOP nominee would be outgoing Governor Jeb Bush.

North Dakota: There are rumors that Governor Hoeven or former Governor Ed Schafer might run against Conrad. Were either man to run, it would be an automatic toss-up. The Democratic streak in the congressional delegation must end someday. However if neither man runs, then Conrad will win again. Do me a favor, and call both Republicans, urging them to run.

Nebraska: Another GOP target, Ben Nelson, may retire since Governor Johanns seems eager to run for his seat. Johanns vs. Nelson would be a toss-up, but I suspect would ultimately lean toward the Republican Governor.

New Mexico: Senator Jeff Bingaman is not the most prominent member of the Senate, but he is a popular incumbent. Were he to run for re-election, he would be a solid bet. However he may decide to retire, in which case Congresswoman Heather Wilson would be the strongest GOP candidate.

California: Diane Feinstein will probably retire. Expect a very close and expensive race.

Washington: Maria Cantwell is another dim lightbulb, and Republicans would be ecstatic if former Congresswoman Dunn ran against her in 2006.

Hawaii: Snooze.

West Virginia: Robert Byrd wins again if he runs again. Considering that he has been a Senator since Eisenhower was President, I expect he will run again and win again. When he retires, this will be a GOP pick-up.

I may have missed a race since I did this off the top of my head, so e-mail me if I have made a mistake. I have not done the Republicans yet, but if my memory serves me correctly, only Senator Rick Santorum can remotely be considered vulnerable.

However I see 2006 as a very good year for us if Elizabeth Dole, Karl Rove, and President Bush start working the phones early.

-- Alexander K. McClure

Review:Social Security

2004-11-26 00:00:00

I expect President Bush, as part of Karl Rove’ s grand strategy for a Republican majority, will push social security reform in the next Congress.

According to a recent poll, only 31% of Americans expect social security to pay the benefits they anticipate upon retirement. 49% believe that President Bush’s investment plan is a good idea.

-- Alexander K. McClure

Review:Regime Change Begins at Home

2004-11-26 00:00:00

It looks as though the sort of domestic regime change that actually will benefit America and her citizens finally has arrived.

Not a day too soon, I might add.

-- Jayson

Review:CBS News - A Special Update

2004-11-26 00:00:00

Having carved up one turkey yesterday, it seems only fitting that I turn my knives on the largest turkey out there today, CBS News.

Ordinarily, I would not pick on a defenseless MSM like this, butsince Les Mooves has been playing at the notion of CBS taking a serious look at Rathergate, it is reasonable to review their recent performance as an objective news team. The results are, well, predictable.

I will begin with Iraq, because CBS did just that. CBS began its newscast with the report that a number of political parties in Iraq want to delay the elections, as if to say that the country is being forced to hold elections it does not want. In actual fact, even the United Nations (grudgingly) agrees Iraq is ready for elections.

The situation, when you look deeper, is that the more radical and smaller parties would like a delay, in order for them to have a better chance. Of winning or simply stirring up trouble, I will let the reader discern.

Then there’s Iran. President Bush worked with European leaders to help negotiate a diplomatic resolution to the crisis caused by Iran’s enhancement of uranium, and praised the agreement without mentioning his care to speak softly while the negotiations progressed, but CBS News did not mention the accord anywhere on its news page.

In what I consider a related indicator of how CBS sees its job as a source for information, CBS’ telecast tonight promised to explain telephone charges besides the normal rates, but when they got down to playing their piece on the air, the highlight was an interview with a Mensa member apologizing that even he could not decipher the various phone company fees and tariffs. The network put their piece on their website, but apparently realized the conflict between their promise and the facts, and did things the ‘CBS Way’; they ignored the problems in their presentation, and hid the evidence; they seem to have removed that page.

So, all in all, CBS News continues to provide the same level of quality and integrity they have maintained for the past 30 years. Not that’s a very high level of standards, but at least they’re consistent.

Consistent BS News, as always.

UPDATE: I neglected to add the key word “telephone” to the rates question. As always, alert readers ellsworth butler and Von Aras caught it imediately.

-- DJ Drummond

Review:Cue the Imperial Theme Music

2004-11-25 00:00:00

A California School District barred one of its teachers from showing his students various historical materials, including – ahem – the U.S. Declaration of Independence.

Need you ask why?

It’s soooo obvious, Jack.

Those documents make reference to “God,” of course.

Looking ahead, I’m sure that, if the teacher’s ensuing lawsuit makes its way to the Ninth Circus U.S. Court of McGovern-era Liberal Dogma, the judges there will explain to us, their intellectual subordinates, how banning the teaching of American history, in the California public school system, is a good thing.

I can hardly wait to see their learned opinion on that issue . . .

-- Jayson


2004-11-25 00:00:00

I’ll note that Dan Rather, who’s stepping down as anchorman, still hasn’t answered the charges I made in a story during the height of RatherGate. Here’s the original story, which ran on this blog on September 17, 2004:

Unimpeachable sources tell me that Dan Rather smacks his wife around on a regular basis. I have memos proving this, written by Dan Rather to Dan Rather. I can send you copies via e-mail.

Some partisan political operatives are saying the memos are fake. They’re wrong, of course, because they’re working off second-generation copies in their pajamas. Even though I only have photocopies, and my experts tell me they’re fake, I’m convinced the memos are accurate and am standing by my story. The memos are coroborated by multiple sources, whose names I cannot reveal. If any definitive evidence emerges that the memos are false, rest assured I will investigate. Until then the preponderance of evidence indicates that this story is true.

Meanwhile, I note that no one has questioned the substance of this story. Dan Rather needs to answer the following question: Does he smack his wife around on a regular basis?

-- PoliPundit


2004-11-25 00:00:00

I missed Larry Sabato’s excellent summary of the election:

  • The Perfect Majority Theorem: The “perfect majority” is 51 percent, exactly what George W. Bush received. Why is it perfect? Super-majorities such as those received by LBJ(1964), Nixon(1972), and Reagan(1984) inevitably deteriorate over time because of internal stresses and contradictory demands that cannot be satisfied. By contrast, a 51 percent majority is easier to maintain, makes governing easier, and increases a party’s chances of winning the next election. It may seem counterintuitive, but the theorem holds in practice under most conditions.
  • Mobilization in a democracy begets counter-mobilization. The 2004 election now becomes Exhibit A in proving this time-tested axiom. Both the Republicans and Democrats sense that 2004 would be a competitive year with high stakes, and they separately went to work to register new voters and get new and old voters to the polls. Reports of success by one party fed intensified efforts by the other party, and on it went for a year or more. The result was higher turnout and enhanced interest in the election–through no overarching advantage for either party from this aspect of campaigning.
  • Bush as Truman. Our regular readers are no doubt sick of our comparisons to 1948, but of all the twentieth century presidential elections, we would insist that 1948 is the closest to 2004. In both cases, an incumbent who fell behind for a good bit of the election year threw himself into the campaign, and the “regular guy” incumbent managed to convince a skeptical public, by a few percentage points, that his course was superior to a sometimes aloof challenger’s. All the other incumbents who fell behind in the election year in the modern era have lost reelection. Truman and Bush are the only members of a very special presidential club.
  • I’ve been a proponent of the Truman analogy for a while now.

    Sabato then laments:

    There is only one aspect of this election that has disappointed us. It has been a full week since Nov. 2, and virtually no stories yet have focused on the upcoming 2006 elections! Where are your priorities, America?

    -- PoliPundit

    Review:Chemical Weapons in Fallujah

    2004-11-25 00:00:00

    Following in the wake of this report, perhaps Chris Matthews will switch gears and start explaining to himself, er, I mean to his “audience,” that Iraq really is part of the global war against terrorism.

    Nah . . .

    -- Jayson

    Review:First? Second? Whatever, Dude.

    2004-11-25 00:00:00

    According to Democrat Christine Gregoire, and regardless of GOP Governor-elect Dino Rossi’s 42-vote winning margin, the Evergreen State gubernatorial contest is – quote – “a tied race.”



    So, by that logic, Smarty Jones actually won the Triple Crown this year.

    And Maurice Green won the gold medal, in the 100 meter dash at the Olympic Games.

    And Al Gore actually . . . Oh, never mind.

    -- Jayson

    Review:The President of the United States at Work ….. And At Play

    2004-11-25 00:00:00

    Curious as to how your President spent his Thanksgiving Day?

    Scott Lindlaw of the Associated (de)Press(ed) has all the juicy details.

    Land of the free.

    Home of the brave.

    -- Jayson