The Minority
Republican inroads into minority voting blocs may have helped carry the election:
In Ohio, Bush attracted 16 percent of the black vote, up from 9 percent in 2000. That increase represented, according to Congress Daily’s Keith Koffler, “. . . a potentially devastating amount for Kerry. Extrapolating from the exit poll, this would amount to about 50,000 new votes for Bush. If these had gone to Kerry, Bush’s 136,000 vote Ohio victory margin would have looked more like 36,000, and we would all be watching Court TV to see who won the election.”In 2000, Bush’s meager 7 percent vote share among black Floridians nearly cost him the presidency. He bettered that in 2004, polling 13 percent against John Kerry. The president’s performance among Latino Floridians also improved, from 49 percent to 56 percent. The GOP’s improved showing among these two groups accounted for roughly 240,000 of the 381,000 votes by which the president carried Florida — 63 percent of his total margin.
In New Mexico, one of two blue states that switched to red this year, Hispanics constitute 42 percent of the population, and 25 percent of the electorate. Bush’s vote share among New Mexico Hispanics improved from 32 percent in 2000 to 44 percent in 2004. This generated a net Republican gain of 23,000 votes — far more than the 8,000 by which the president carried the state. In Colorado and Nevada, the president’s Hispanic vote share increased by5 and 6 points respectively, thwarting Kerry’s best chances for a red-state takeover in the West.
— PoliPundit