Review:2006 - U.S. Senate
2005-10-01 00:00:00Here’s the progression of Democrat power in the U.S. Senate ever since the high water mark of the FDR-era coalition:
68 seats - 1965.
61 seats - 1975.
47 seats - 1985.
48 seats - 1995.
44 seats - 2005.
That’s despite the Torricelli/Lautenberg switch, despite Bob Packwood’s resignation {cough}, despite Mary Landrieu bringing out the dead against Woody Jenkins, despite the Hollywood and Hamptons money bags, the Democrat cat & dog and felon blocs, and despite the fact the GOP literally gives away U.S. Senate seats – every single election cycle.
Furthermore, here’s a number you will not see if you garner your political analyses from legacy academics or trust-fund liberal media pundits:
14.
A grand total of 14 multi-term U.S. Senators have lost re-election bids since 1986, *inclusive*.
No, seriously, that’s true.
Only 14 multi-term U.S. Senators have lost re-election bids over the past ten election cycles, inclusive. Two of whom, in point of fact, were defeated not in general elections, but instead were ousted in their respective primaries.
Quite unlike races involving freshman Senators, betting against a multi-term U.S. Senator – Democrat or Republican – is not a way to get solvent, much less to get wealthy. The reality is that they rarely lose.
Good times. Bad times. High turnout. Low turnout. Scandals. Recessions. Wars. Peace. Loma Prieta. Hurricane Andrew. Firestorms. Impeachment. Bull markets. Bear markets. Mid-term cycles. Presidential years.
Doesn’t matter.
They very rarely lose. Merely between 0-3 times per cycle. But more often than not closer to zero. Which therefore means their re-election ratios are 90-100%.
Freshmen Senators, on the other hand, lose re-election bids quite often.
And open seats are open seats. They frequently change hands.
The media next year has to defend nine seats in which freshman Senators are up for re-election or for which no incumbent is running: WA, NE, FL, MI, NY, DE, MD, NJ, MN.
The GOP, on the other hand, only is defending five such seats: VA, MO, TN, NV, and RI.
Just keep all that in mind when next Summer rolls around, and the usual suspects rhythmically begin chanting the media is poised to re-take the Senate.
-- Jayson