“Vote By Rote,” Mike Bouchards Secret Weapon
In the Michigan Senate Race there are various polls out that I am confident no professional Democrat Pollster believes:
A mid-September Detroit News/WXYZ-TV poll showed Republican Bouchard trailing Democrat Stabenow 34 percent to 53 percent. It’s a tough reality for a candidate who’s used to winning.
“His biggest problem is name recognition,” said analyst Ed Sarpolis, vice president of the EPIC-MRA polling firm. “There are still a large number of people who don’t know who he is.”
Sarpolis says Bouchard’s problem is “name recognition” but that is only true outside of the “tri-county” area.
The “little secret” is that Mike Bouchard has favorable name recognition that far outstrips Debbie Satabenow in Oakland County Michigan. Unlike Debbie, who has run in her former Congressional District and once statewide, Sheriff Bouchard is a proven and extremely popular vote getter in Oakland County. Sheriff Bouchard is a real “hands on” guy and if there is an event, he is there shaking the hands and he has been doing it for years.
Here it Polipundit.com, our friend Jayson Javitz educated myself to the democrat “vote by rote” voters. Well here we have the reverse that will take place. Oakland County voters are used to and comfortable marking the ballot for Bouchard. Hey, I am convinced that there will be some voters who will leave thevoting booth, after voting for Bouchard, wondering why Stabenow is running for Sheriff!!!
Just how good is Bouchard a vote getter?
2000 General Election (Oakland County)
Gore 281,201
Bush 274,319
Abraham 277,180
Stabenow 268,853
Bouchard 352,014
Carson 67,235
2004 General Election (Oakland County)
Kerry 319,383
Bush 316,623
Bouchard 361,092
Mitchell 238,368
In the 2000 General Election (Michigan Statewide) Stabenow defeated Abraham by only 67,232 votes. At the same time, farther down the ballot in Oakland County, Bouchard received 83,161 more votes than Stabenow countywide.
There is no reason to believe that Bouchard will perform worse than Abraham did Statewide. There is every reason to believe that Bouchard will perform significantly better than Stabenow in Oakland County where the “Bouchard Vote By Rote” voters live. Because of the dismal state of Michigan’s economy, Stabenows performance in 2000 will be her high water mark. Further, unlike 2000 which was an energized Presidential election, this is a deflated Governors election where last minute decision voters will say that a “new guy” can not do any worse.
If the 2006 Michigan Election is simply a repeat of 2000 and Bouchard holds his Oakland County base, he wins. This is what traditional “polling” can not flesh out. Debbie Stabenow however knows this and it is showing in her recent Senate voting. Michigan Republicans are energized to sacrafice a democrat, Michigan Democrats are not happy with any of their choices.
— Oak Leaf